Der von Christine R. Ohlert und Barbara E. Weißenberger verfasste Beitrag "Beating the base-rate fallacy: an experimental approach on the effectiveness of different information presentation formats" wurde zur Veröffentlichung im Journal of Management Control angenommen. Der Beitrag befasst sich mit Berichtsformaten, die zum Debiasing, d.h. der Vermeidung von kognitiven Entscheidungsverzerrungen, beitragen können. Im Kern zeigen sich grafische Visualisierungen als überlegen z.B. gegenüber Tabellen.
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Abstract
Cognitive biases such as the base-rate fallacy are well known in theory, but until recently there exists only limited research how to cope with those biases in managerial decision-making. Hence, the aim of our study is to examine how management accountants should prepare information in order to reduce the phenomenon of base-rate neglect in probability judgments to guide rational managerial decision-making. To address this research question, we use an experimental design. Empirical evidence suggests that a visual-based information format, especially in comparison to a tabular representation, significantly reduces the fallacy of neglecting base-rates. In addition, we integrate user’s cognitive style and other personal characteristics as possible factors influencing the base-rate fallacy. Underlying mechanism and individual differences are discussed. Based on our findings, we offer advice to management accountants and guidance for futureresearch directions.